Odds

Probabilities

Never tell me the odds!

Well, we do tell you the odds

Hand odds in Corellian Spike Sabacc

We present two sets of numbers:

1. Theoretical 5-card odds.
   These are exact combinatorial probabilities for a random 5-card deal from the 62-card Sabacc deck, with no drawing, swapping, or spike dice. There are 6,471,002 possible 5-card combinations. Each of the 5-card hands is classified into exactly one category, similar to standard 5-card draw poker odds.
   This combinatorial model is a strong approximation of real play odds in Corellian Spike Sabacc, because during play each player may build their hand up to a maximum of five cards. The distribution of final hands therefore closely tracks the mathematical distribution of 5-card combinations, especially in terms of their relative rarity.
2. In-game frequencies.
   These are empirical frequencies measured over 136 million simulated games with 4 players using hunter strategies that actively chase the given ranked hand over 8,000,000 games per ranked hand and under the full Corellian Spike Sabacc rules (drawing, swapping, discard+draw and forced discard+draw and wipeouts from the spike dice). They show how often each hand type actually appears at the table as a final hand per player. Odds are therefore per player, per game.

The theoretical table shows the inherent rarity of each hand in the deck.
The simulated table shows how the game mechanics (drawing, swapping, spike dice, and player behavior) increase the chances of seeing spectacular hands in real play.